The Venture Capital Market in 2026: A Time for Pragmatism and New Opportunities

Bakht Niyazov, city — Almaty, venture investor, Linkedin

Today's debates about the artificial intelligence bubble increasingly resemble the déjà vu of the dot-com era. Renowned investor Ray Dalio has vividly drawn these parallels on multiple occasions, pointing out the dangerous similarity in market dynamics when belief in the future begins to exponentially outpace current profitability. But if we set aside panic and look at the industry soberly, then in 2026 we will see not a collapse, but a large-scale restructuring of the "rules of the game." For prepared players, the current correction becomes not a threat, but an additional opportunity. At least, that is how I see it.

The technology is real, but the valuations are not

The main paradox of our time is that AI has already become the foundation of the economy. It's just that not everyone has realized it yet. But the problem is that capital has flooded into this sector too aggressively. The industry is facing a serious disconnect, as company valuations seem to live their own lives. Investors, chasing illusory gains, continue to pour money into startups that lack a clear economic model.

Cult of names versus the power of the product

The past year revealed a fascinating phenomenon: the market stopped evaluating businesses and started evaluating biographies. We saw startups backed by former stars from OpenAI or Google raise billions of dollars even before they had their first paying customer. Meanwhile, there exists a whole caste of undervalued workhorses in the market. For example, DeepL or Writesonic have millions of users and stable revenue, but are valued more modestly by investors than loss-making but star-studded startups. The market has divided into types of "infrastructure gods" and ordinary mortals who have to prove every tenge of profit.

Strategy for sustainable survival

My personal stance for 2026 is dictated by strict risk management. I intend to prepare the startups I support for survival even in the event of a harsh venture winter, which is likely if the AI bubble bursts.

This is why, within my venture studio, my partners Maxim Tolmachev, Anes Kaldybaev, Pavel Koktyshev, and I are implementing a new approach to supporting founders. Assistance to startups in Justart is focused on creating utilitarian products. In my understanding, risk management today means having a bird in the hand in the form of a market where the startup can generate stable revenue right now. Having such a foundation allows the company to confidently invest in R&D and complex technological developments without fearing sudden cessation of investment. At Justart, we help teams implement a strategy of maximum precision: lower MVP costs, faster time to market, and concentration on results. The only limitation is that we cannot work with a large number of projects. Therefore, we are now launching another acceleration program from MOST. This time in Uzbekistan. A new market, new partners, new approaches. I am confident that the result will be impressive! I will definitely tell you about it.

Regional resilience: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

Against the backdrop of global instability, my personal focus is consciously shifting towards Central Asia. The expansion of our MOST fund into Uzbekistan is a strategic step to strengthen the resilience of the entire business model. We intend to diversify the portfolio by adding another rapidly developing economy. We already have our first deal! And it is a very good one.

I sincerely believe that working in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will bring immense benefits to the region. In our reality, startup founders are forced to be efficient from day one; there is no room for irrational capital burn. This groundedness makes projects from Central Asia extremely attractive. At the same time, we maintain our focus on the global market, but now risk management holds paramount importance for us.

Conclusion

My outlook for 2026 is optimistic. We are going through a phase where the market is washing out everything superfluous. Artificial intelligence is our foundation, but now it will be built not on empty promises, but on sustainable business models.

Through the tools of the Justart studio and the opportunities of the MOST fund, we are choosing the path of targeted investments. I believe that it is in Central Asia that we will find projects that will become new leaders thanks to their efficiency and ability to operate in a real economy. Venture business remains a game for those who know how to keep a cool head in any situation.