"One of the startups that particularly inspired me this year is BILLZ," — Marat Tolybay on deals and the future of venture capital in Central Asia

Marat Tolybai, city — Almaty, CEO Activat VC, LinkedIn

About the beginning of 2025

Since the beginning of 2025, we have reviewed about 80 applications. Of these, one startup has already received investment, and another is in the final stage.

The year started actively: we have already invested in a startup — RE:Create, which helps bloggers and creators track trends in social networks using AI. In addition, a deal with another project is expected to close soon.

Since the beginning of the year, the greatest interest has been in projects related to artificial intelligence — especially in the field of AI assistants that help make decisions in various areas: from content creation to analytics and management.

Geography and trends

For the last five to six years, we have traditionally worked with Central Asia and the South Caucasus — regions we know well: we are familiar with the infrastructure, startups, and regularly participate in events. We are already recognized there, and applications come organically.

However, over the last two to three years, we have begun to expand our geography — looking at startups from other countries. Currently, there are startups from Germany, Spain, and other countries in our pipeline, founded by natives of Russia and Ukraine. We are increasingly moving beyond the familiar region and starting to look at Eastern Europe, MENA, and Southeast Asia.

Each year, the level of startups in the region noticeably improves — with each new cycle, projects become stronger. Kazakhstan remains the leader in the Central Asian region: it has the most startups, and their level of preparation is higher. Uzbekistan is in second place, followed by Azerbaijan and other countries. At the same time, growth is observed everywhere — the ecosystem is developing proportionally.

Over the past year, Higgsfield stood out especially, which is now valued at $20 million — a loud result even by US standards, and Hero's Journey, which entered the US market with a high valuation. Our portfolio startup Garderob successfully launched in Eastern Europe and is already operating in several countries. 

Currently, the early-stage startup market is already saturated — there are enough business angels and funds, and startups in general can close their first rounds. This stage is largely behind us.

However, we have hit a ceiling at later stages — there is a lack of large funds and capital. Just as there was an "explosion" in Pre-Seed and Seed stages, a similar leap is now brewing at the next stage. This will be facilitated by both the state fund of funds and private players who already see this niche.

In the next one to two years, we will most likely see a boom in secondary funds and growing interest in late-stage startups. Many projects that are currently at the Seed stage will soon move to rounds with investments in the millions of dollars and begin to scale. This will become the next step in the development of the market — moving into the growth and maturity zone that the region has long awaited.

For the past two years, the main technological trend has been artificial intelligence. AI has become a must-have: startups everywhere are using solutions like ChatGPT and DeepSeek, integrating them into their products and adding their own features.

Strategy and portfolio

Our investment strategy has not changed overall — we continue to focus on early-stage startups, with a maximum check of $100,000, and remain industry-neutral, open to different verticals. The only change is that we have become more flexible regarding geography and have started considering startups from further abroad.

One startup that particularly inspired us this year is BILLZ, which recently completed a successful exit. It helps small and medium-sized businesses optimize their operations on online platforms in the retail and trade sectors. They came to us two to three years ago and immediately showed high potential. Founder Rustam Khamdamov is competent, purposeful, and pragmatic. Instead of dreaming about an IPO, he realistically assessed the market, understanding that for the region, this is not yet the most realistic prospect.

When a favorable offer came from TBC Bank, he accepted it as timely and reasonable. The deal went through on excellent terms for all parties. Such a pragmatic approach is a big plus and a sign of maturity.

The startup that impressed us the most among non-portfolio projects in Kazakhstan is Higgsfield. It was originally conceived as a global product, not a local initiative, and its level already meets global standards today. That is why I always highlight it separately.

Among portfolio startups — our latest deal is the startup RE:Create. We live in an era where anyone can become a creator — social networks have given access to the attention of millions. This is not just a trend, but a new reality of the creative economy. Startups at the intersection of social networks, influencers, and content will remain relevant for a long time.

About the future

For startups, AI is like a double-edged sword: it can both help and threaten. On one hand, it significantly enhances creators, programmers, and engineers. On the other — it is already replacing people in certain professions.

Those who adapt faster and start actively using AI — in work and in everyday life — will win. The more often you interact with AI assistants, the better you understand how to work with them and integrate them into your reality.

We are entering an era where living side by side with AI is the norm. And those who accept this faster and start implementing it will be at an advantage. This is the main challenge — to master AI before others.

The trend for text-based AI is already fading. They performed well, and most startups have already integrated AI into their services. At the moment, a new, powerful stage is beginning — AI for video, images, and sound. These are the last formats that have not yet been fully mastered, and AI is starting to work actively with them. It is important to join this transition in time.

A trend is not a flash that quickly disappears. It is a surge of interest that then stabilizes at the level of sustainable value. Even if you miss the peak, the technology will remain, and you can successfully work with it in the long term. The main thing is to be in the process and develop together with the tools.

As for industries, everything develops in waves. FinTech, by feel, is going into decline — the main solutions, such as Kaspi and payment systems, are already implemented. A similar story happened with EdTech — the peak came during the pandemic, and now interest has decreased.

Today, BioTech is coming to the forefront — everything related to the human body. This is a trend for the next five years: it will develop slowly but thoroughly and will remain in focus for a long time. Technologies are only beginning to approach neurointerfaces, chips, diagnostics, and psychological analysis. For example, at one of the forums, a startup from the US was presented with headphones that capture brain signals.

There are many startups, and the level varies — from global players to local projects. There are those who are already ready for the international market.

There are also mid-level ones — for them, the maximum ambition is to reach the regional level. And there are startups without global ambitions — they focus on creating a strong local brand. For example, Krisha.kz and Kolesa.kz — Kazakhstani projects that have become monopolists in their niches and are confidently holding the market.

Previously, I was categorical and told all startups: dream big, strive to become unicorns. Now I look at this philosophically. There is no single correct path — everything depends on ambitions and priorities. Big goals require sacrifices: less time for family, more business trips, complete immersion in work. If you are ready for this — go ahead. If, however, you value balance, want to combine business with personal life — this is also normal. There is no need to think that without a dream of unicorns you have lost. Everyone has their own path, and every path has the right to exist.