«The cuts aren't real!» — Talai Jumabaev on the IT market and its prospects

Talai Jumabaev, city — Austin, founder of GrowthHungry, Instagram, Telegram

I regularly receive questions about whether it's too late to enter IT. We see news about layoffs almost every day. People are lost. Should they even go into IT at all? If not IT, then where?

I tried to make sense of these layoffs that have been happening over the last few years. My main source was a popular layoff tracking resource. Here’s what emerged using the US market as an example:

— Sales and Marketing: 30,000–40,000 people laid off

— Engineers: 50,000–60,000 people laid off

— Customer Support and Service: 15,000–20,000 people laid off

— Management: 20,000–30,000 people laid off

— HR, Admin, Finance: 10,000–15,000 people laid off.

The numbers may vary depending on the sources; I do not claim accuracy. What is important to understand is that the problem is not that IT specialists are unnecessary and being laid off, but that businesses today are forced to rebuild their products, abandon "dead" projects, and reallocate resources in light of advancing innovations.

I consider the letter from Intuit CEO Sasan Goudarzi, in which he announced a 10% workforce reduction, i.e., 1,800 people, to be illustrative. Here is the most important excerpt from Sasan's letter to his employees:

"The changes we are making today allow us to direct additional investments into our most important areas to support our customers and ensure growth. This includes reinvesting in the necessary skills and opportunities to support these areas, and we plan to hire approximately 1,800 new employees, primarily for engineering, product, and customer-facing roles such as sales, customer success, and marketing.

No one knows what tomorrow will bring. One thing is certain — change will continue. You will have to keep learning. IT is no more risky than marketing. If you are just starting your journey in IT, your profession may change significantly in five years. Prepare for the fact that AI will become your best assistant and accelerate your work. Your role may turn into managing dozens of AI agents.

If you still do not want to go into IT, there are many professions that will be minimally affected by AI. What are these professions?

Mostly these are so-called "boring professions" such as electricians, plumbers, roofers and HVAC specialists, garbage collectors, chefs, and so on. They are considered "boring" because the Gen Z generation hardly chooses these fields. It is much more attractive to work as a blogger, influencer, or traveler.

An interesting fact: about 40% of all millionaires in the US are engaged in "boring" businesses. This is not surprising. For example, calling a plumber to your home can cost $500, and inspecting an air conditioner — $800. When Elon Musk built the Tesla factory in Austin, he doubled the salaries of electricians and lured them from the market. As a result, people could wait for an electrician to come to their homes for several weeks.

So, let's summarize.

Entering IT is worth it if you are ready to dedicate many years to it and constantly learn. Do not expect a good income in the first two years; be prepared for continuous development.

If this long and difficult path is not for you, there are other ways to achieve financial independence, for example, by choosing one of the "boring professions" — they are the least affected by AI. We will always need plumbers, electricians, garbage collectors, and roof repair specialists.