Key industries that will shape global business in 2026

Defense

The global defense sector continues to grow amid rising security spending and weapons modernization. In 2024, the world’s 100 largest defense companies earned a record $679 billion, and growth persisted into 2025. Future dynamics will depend on the resilience of state demand and long-term rearmament programs.

Additional momentum for the sector comes from investments in unmanned systems, satellites, and military space technologies. The key player remains the German Rheinmetall — one of the fastest-growing defense conglomerates in the world. The company is actively expanding its business lines, including shipbuilding and satellite technologies, and its market capitalization has approached €70 billion. By 2030, Rheinmetall plans to increase revenue to €50 billion.

The industry may also receive support from IPOs of European defense companies and the listing of technology startups related to security and defense solutions.

Banks

In 2026, the banking sector will be at the center of investors’ attention against the backdrop of revised capital requirements in several countries. More flexible regulation could strengthen the positions of the largest banks and expand their ability to finance large-scale projects, including AI infrastructure.

UBS is of particular interest, as it remains under close regulatory scrutiny following its acquisition of Credit Suisse. Easing capital requirements could support the bank’s shares, which currently lag behind competitors.

Another source of uncertainty remains the consolidation of European banks. Despite discussions about the need for larger players, major deals still occur rarely, which hinders market transformation.

Technology

In 2026, investors will expect real revenue from AI rather than promises. The gap between companies that profit from AI and those that merely use the label will become more pronounced. Funding for projects without a clear business model will gradually decline.

One of the key events of the year could be the launch of OpenAI’s advertising business, which would demonstrate the company’s ability to monetize an audience close to 1 billion users. AI adoption in business will remain cautious, but in certain sectors — marketing, customer service, finance, and healthcare — a sharp rise in individual players is possible.

Particular attention is being paid to Apple: a potential leadership change in 2026 could be a pivotal moment for the company and the entire industry. The new leadership will determine whether Apple can offer its own vision for consumer AI devices.

The market could also be reshaped by a wave of M&A deals — large technology companies may begin actively acquiring AI startups if valuations correct. The key constraint remains the stance of regulators.

Pharmaceuticals

Weight-loss drugs remain the main growth driver for the pharmaceutical industry. The forecast for global sales of such medications by 2030 has been raised to $102 billion. In 2026, new drugs are expected to hit the market, including oral formulations that will complement injectable solutions.

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly maintain dominant positions, but competition is intensifying. Investors are closely monitoring the commercial potential of new developments, especially in the segment of oral drugs.

Additional pressure on the market will come from the impending launch of generics: in 2026, semaglutide will lose patent protection in several major markets. This will intensify price competition and may reduce the sector’s investment appeal.

Media

AI-generated music has begun to occupy leading positions in charts, intensifying debates over copyright, artist revenues, and the principles of AI model training. Streaming platforms, primarily Spotify, will be at the center of these changes, as the growth of AI content could transform consumption patterns and fragment audiences.

One of the key corporate stories of the year could be the battle for Warner Bros. Discovery. Interest from major players has already influenced the company’s stock dynamics, but potential deals may face regulatory and structural constraints.

Additional risks for the industry remain negotiations with creative unions and labor unions in 2026. Issues surrounding the use of AI in content production could lead to project delays and rising costs.