Elon Musk said how many years it will take for robots to replace doctors

Three years until the best surgeon

Diamandis, a physician by training, asked Musk when the Optimus robot would become a better surgeon than the best human doctors. Musk replied—three years. Moreover, this refers not to a single case but to mass deployment: according to him, in three years there will be more Optimus robots capable of performing complex surgeries than all human surgeons on the planet combined.

Musk explained his confidence by citing the shortage of qualified doctors and the long training period required. According to him, it takes a very long time for a surgeon to become a good specialist, while medical knowledge is constantly being updated. Doctors are time-constrained and make mistakes, he added.

In four years, Musk believes, robots will perform surgeries better than any human, and in five years the gap will become particularly noticeable in plastic surgery.

Musk attributes his confidence in the speed of progress to the fact that the development of humanoid robots is advancing simultaneously in three directions—capabilities of artificial intelligence software, chip power, and mechanical precision of movements. According to Musk, these three exponentials multiply each other, and another factor is added—Optimus robots will begin to assemble Optimus robots, which will further accelerate growth.

Diamandis added that an important advantage of robots will be shared memory—each surgical robot will possess the experience of all performed operations simultaneously, without fatigue, distracting thoughts, or the need for extra morning coffee.

Medicine will become practically free

According to Musk, in the future medical care will become available to any person anywhere on the planet—from Zimbabwe to remote villages in Africa—and will be of higher quality than that received by the US President today. The cost of such care will be reduced to the expenses of robot production and electricity.

Musk cited LASIK laser vision correction as an example, where the operation is already performed by automated equipment rather than a doctor manually. In his opinion, automation will eventually come to more complex areas of surgery as well—people will prefer the precision of robots to the human hand, even the most experienced one.

At the same time, Musk acknowledged that some patients, especially older generations, will continue to desire the presence of a human during surgery for a long time, while younger generations will view this more calmly.

Entering medical school will become pointless

When asked whether young people should enroll in medical universities, Musk answered unequivocally—no, except in cases where study is needed for communication and social experience. According to him, this applies not only to medicine but to education in general.

Musk also referred to a forecast mentioned earlier—Saudi Arabia estimated that by 2040 there could be up to 10 billion humanoid robots in the world. Musk called this figure an underestimate.

Skeptics on forecasts

Musk made a similar statement before, in spring 2026. Doctors and bioethics experts viewed the three-year timeline skeptically. Arthur Caplan, a bioethicist at New York University, called this claim implausible and noted that complex surgery—particularly plastic and burn surgeries—borders on art, and confirming that robots perform no worse than humans will require years of comparative clinical trials.